Recent events in Iraq crystallized, perhaps the best way, through a series of photographs ... immortalized a jihadist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (IKIL). This series is titled as "The Destruction of the Sykes-Pikot Agreement" (Sykes-Picot Agreement) and confirms the intention of the group to reverse IKIL spheres of influence in the Middle East, as had been established for nearly a century.
This series illustrates the leveling a border dyke to the north Syrian border with Iraq. The rebels, covered with koufigia, under the hot sun, observe the progress of work. The opening will create large enough to pass, in a single column, the former American Humvee jeeps of the Iraqi Army, which have now passed into the jihadists. While a map that describes an antiquated interpretation of Sharia has spread to Mosul, photos with chastagk # SykesPicotOver trafficked widely through social network twitter. According to the jihadists borders of 1916, set secrets from French and British imperialists represented by Sir Mark Sykes and Francois Georges-Paikot divide arbitrarily Mesopotamia and can be challenged.
Currently, the most ardent supporters of these colonial borders are in Baghdad, Damascus, Ankara, Tehran and Riyadh, while Europeans and Americans, who already feel the fatigue involved a decade of war on this side of world, they want everything possible to stay out of the crisis. The burden falls on the shoulders of local actors, who are called to prevent the establishment of a mini-emiratoutis Islamic Jihad, and the background of this common purpose, coexists enough room intrigues.
Turkey in search strategy
While the jihadist threat blowing over Iraq and Syria, Turkey struggles to isolate the violence abroad and pursue a strategic agenda in Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey is allied with the Iraqi Kurdish leadership, leading off the central government in Baghdad. While escalated his attacks IKIL, Turkey, with the consent of Turkey's energy minister, sailed two tankers in the Turkish port of Ceyhan, carrying Kurdish million barrels of crude oil in search of buyer, which angered the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki . On June 16, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, bringing even more intensity, announced that another tanker, the third in the series, will be ready within the week. With al-Maliki now based in Kurdish forces to repel jihadists in the north, the centers of Ankara and Erbil have the upper hand in the ongoing dispute with Baghdad on the distribution of petrodollars.
However, support for Turkey's Kurds of Iraq has its limits.
Ankara estimated that closer relationship with the Kurdish Government would serve the exploitation of energy reserves in northern Iraq and in control of Kurdish unrest within the borders of Turkey. Nevertheless, Turkey certainly did not intend to assist the independence of the Kurds. And now, where Kirkuk is under Kurdish control, after the sudden wave of jihadists, the largest oilfield in northern Iraq puts "fuel" the mechanisms of Kurdish separatism. To the great concern of Turkey, Kurdish militants from the Kurdistan Workers' Party and the entire people of Defense units have already strengthened the positions of pesmergka (Kurdish fighters) in northern Iraq. At the same time, the IKIL and other jihadists partners, holding 80 hostages Turkish citizens.
Turkey therefore has put foot in Mesopotamia, but not under its own terms. A Turkish force 1500-2000 soldiers has taken place silently in Iraqi Kurdistan. This force will probably expand, now that Turkey can invoke a series of threats and a growing need to reduce the ambitions of the Kurds, to justify its presence there. The Kurdish leadership is between clashing rocks, the one has in mind the deep-rooted distrust of Kurdish in Turkey, however, they must face their own challenges, including the threat from Iran, which is a common opponent in both own and Turkey.
Iran on the defensive
Iran, worried by the growing pervasive policy of Turkey in Kurdistan and the possibility of exporting jihadist threat is developing in recent months the military presence along the border with boron Iraq. Tehran is currently in the uncomfortable position of having to strengthen Shiite allies in the Iraqi army. Although Iran is probably better operational preparedness to handle the situation alone, such a strategy would pose enormous risks.
Iran has spent the last year trying laboriously to establish the influence of Shiites in Iraq under a central government in Baghdad. Tehran is bound specifically to al-Maliki, however it is essential to keep a close support with Baghdad that would manage the fluid nature of landscape unruly Shia in Iraq. Use Shiite militias, while allowing Iran to strengthen the Iraqi army in this critical situation, but undermines the long-term intention of Iran to control Iraq having the upper hand in Baghdad. The longer supported militias and Baghdad become comparatively weaker, more should future Iran labored to restrict the secession of the Southern Shia Iraq.
The upsurge of fighting in the Sunni-controlled areas of Iraq lead to potentially greater Iranian involvement in this dynamic conflict. A call Sunnis to turn their arms against the Persians, historical enemies, and allies of the Persians, the Arabs, Shiites, is an excellent incentive for Sunni Arab fighters, bypassing what any ideological differences with each other.
A resurgence of fanatical related feuds will complicate further the Shiite government of Iraq to recruit several allies among the Sunni population of Iraq to fight against the jihadists.
However, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (IKIL) would not have accomplished the lightning spread across Iraq, although there was substantial support for local Sunni tribal groups, which enjoy significant subsidies in exchange supporters from the Persian Gulf. Our attention must therefore be turned to members of the royal family of Saudi Arabia, who apparently watching developments from the "quiet" Riyadh.
The role of Saudi Arabia
Admittedly, this was not a good year for the Saudis. A Persian American approach would be a nightmare for the Sunni kingdom of Saud, as the prospect of the U.S. to wean energy. Saudi Arabia has no means to directly sabotage the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Indeed, the Saudis had to swallow the "bitter" pill and they start a dialogue with Iran. Nevertheless, the Saudis can and will make life difficult for the Iranians, and if he could be invited to negotiate, will proceed under their own terms.
Syria and Lebanon have consistently serve as hot spots battles destabilizing the region, although the Sunni insurgency has little chance to overthrow the regime in Damascus-based Iran-Lebanon and is so fragmented that no local agent can not be claim a significant advantage. The game has shifted therefore influence in Mesopotamia, Iran does not want to lose the benefits of the rise of Shia in Saudi Arabia-either formally or private-has developed close ties with several tribal groups in the Sunni areas of Anbar Mosul and strengthened the Sunni insurgency.
The Saudis do not have good relations with IKIL. In fact, they've kicked a terrorist organization after parts of the organization in Saudi territory conspiring against kingdom.
But IKIL is not the only organization involved in attacks in the region. Former Baathist fighters from Naqshabandiyya, together with Mujahideen and Sounach also play an important role in the ongoing battles. Most of the Sunni paramilitary groups and the growing number of defectors Awakening Council (composed of Sunni fighters who enlisted in the United States to fight Al Qaeda in Iraq) joined now by these paramilitary groups are coordinated directly by the guerrilla group Anbar, which in turn coordinated with IKIL on a selective basis synergasias.O chief of intelligence of Saudi Arabia, the Yousef bin Ali al Idrisis, believed to be in direct contact with the team Anbar, enabling Riyadh affect the evolution of fighting and thus to bring Iran into serious trouble.
The bonus for Saudi Arabia, although the Sunni insurgency, still largely confined to the Sunni areas in Iraq, and therefore is not expected to affect the production and export of Iraqi oil from the Shiite south, the bonus is the price of crude, have jumped to $ 113 a barrel for the first time this year. Saudi Arabia is not the only party to benefit and wishes this Geli on oil prices. Russia considered itself to be quite satisfied with the effects of the crisis in Iraq.
Reassessment of a mysterious meeting in Sochi
On 3 June, just days before the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (IKIL) attack in Iraq, a secret meeting took place in the holiday resort of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. Putin invited the Saudi prime minister Saud al-Faisal and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who cut short a commitment made in Moscow in order to arrive on time. Details of the content of the meeting is scarce.
The investigative journalism of Geopolitical Weekly to collect information on the content of the meeting proved fruitless, as the only poudimosiopoiithike summary was that Saudi Arabia and Russia have discussed a possible resolution for the division of power in Syria. The state news agency of Saudi Arabia announced on June 10 that Lavrov and al-Faisal had a telephone conversation follows, discussing the settlement of the crisis in Syria. Although Syria is high on the agenda and Russia's interest to protect its influence in Damascus through an agreement that would keep the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power, allafparchoun suspected contained larger background of these commitments.
Both Saudi Arabia and Russia both share mutual goals: to undermine the bargaining line between Iran and the U.S. and to keep oil prices at a satisfactory, for them, a level above $ 100 a barrel.
Few can do to prevent a negotiated settlement between Iran and U.S.. In fact, the events in Iraq and the jihadist threat adds another reason for cooperation between the U.S. and Iran. Washington still faces a large vortex in the Middle East, at the same time anxiously trying to show both internally and with its partners, the interest is mainly focused on other important issues in other parts of the world, and particularly in the immediate vicinity Russia, Ukraine. Moreover, the United States and Turkey have a common view on how to manage the issue of Iraq, a phase where Washington needs cooperation of Ankara towards Russia.
If a crisis of the magnitude of the war in Iraq ignition, give the time needed by Moscow to manage its regional issues with as less U.S. intervention, the better for Putin. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is trying to weaken Iran and to test the US-Iranian cooperation, and in this direction Riyadh believes that it is worth trying to move, at least for now.
History lesson
Whether by coincidence, or on careful strategic planning, or a combination of both, there are many winners and many losers in the game with Iraq. Russia knows this game. The United States, a successor power in colonial spheres of influence map of Sykes-Picot, will be forced to turn to quickly grasp the rules of the game.
When the French and the British were conspiring in 1916 on the post-Ottoman map, Czarist Russia tacitly consented to Paris and London to divide the lands. Exactly one year later, in 1917, the Soviets threw a strategic fulcrum on the agenda of Western publishing agreement Sykes-Picot, thus planting the seeds for the upcoming Arab riots and inciting the imperialist domination of Europe and the Middle Anatoli.Tora the U.S. government recognizes the trap that awaits her. But having knowledge of history, this time, Washington should let local actors to absorb most of the risk.
This series illustrates the leveling a border dyke to the north Syrian border with Iraq. The rebels, covered with koufigia, under the hot sun, observe the progress of work. The opening will create large enough to pass, in a single column, the former American Humvee jeeps of the Iraqi Army, which have now passed into the jihadists. While a map that describes an antiquated interpretation of Sharia has spread to Mosul, photos with chastagk # SykesPicotOver trafficked widely through social network twitter. According to the jihadists borders of 1916, set secrets from French and British imperialists represented by Sir Mark Sykes and Francois Georges-Paikot divide arbitrarily Mesopotamia and can be challenged.
Currently, the most ardent supporters of these colonial borders are in Baghdad, Damascus, Ankara, Tehran and Riyadh, while Europeans and Americans, who already feel the fatigue involved a decade of war on this side of world, they want everything possible to stay out of the crisis. The burden falls on the shoulders of local actors, who are called to prevent the establishment of a mini-emiratoutis Islamic Jihad, and the background of this common purpose, coexists enough room intrigues.
Turkey in search strategy
While the jihadist threat blowing over Iraq and Syria, Turkey struggles to isolate the violence abroad and pursue a strategic agenda in Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey is allied with the Iraqi Kurdish leadership, leading off the central government in Baghdad. While escalated his attacks IKIL, Turkey, with the consent of Turkey's energy minister, sailed two tankers in the Turkish port of Ceyhan, carrying Kurdish million barrels of crude oil in search of buyer, which angered the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki . On June 16, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, bringing even more intensity, announced that another tanker, the third in the series, will be ready within the week. With al-Maliki now based in Kurdish forces to repel jihadists in the north, the centers of Ankara and Erbil have the upper hand in the ongoing dispute with Baghdad on the distribution of petrodollars.
However, support for Turkey's Kurds of Iraq has its limits.
Ankara estimated that closer relationship with the Kurdish Government would serve the exploitation of energy reserves in northern Iraq and in control of Kurdish unrest within the borders of Turkey. Nevertheless, Turkey certainly did not intend to assist the independence of the Kurds. And now, where Kirkuk is under Kurdish control, after the sudden wave of jihadists, the largest oilfield in northern Iraq puts "fuel" the mechanisms of Kurdish separatism. To the great concern of Turkey, Kurdish militants from the Kurdistan Workers' Party and the entire people of Defense units have already strengthened the positions of pesmergka (Kurdish fighters) in northern Iraq. At the same time, the IKIL and other jihadists partners, holding 80 hostages Turkish citizens.
Turkey therefore has put foot in Mesopotamia, but not under its own terms. A Turkish force 1500-2000 soldiers has taken place silently in Iraqi Kurdistan. This force will probably expand, now that Turkey can invoke a series of threats and a growing need to reduce the ambitions of the Kurds, to justify its presence there. The Kurdish leadership is between clashing rocks, the one has in mind the deep-rooted distrust of Kurdish in Turkey, however, they must face their own challenges, including the threat from Iran, which is a common opponent in both own and Turkey.
Iran on the defensive
Iran, worried by the growing pervasive policy of Turkey in Kurdistan and the possibility of exporting jihadist threat is developing in recent months the military presence along the border with boron Iraq. Tehran is currently in the uncomfortable position of having to strengthen Shiite allies in the Iraqi army. Although Iran is probably better operational preparedness to handle the situation alone, such a strategy would pose enormous risks.
Iran has spent the last year trying laboriously to establish the influence of Shiites in Iraq under a central government in Baghdad. Tehran is bound specifically to al-Maliki, however it is essential to keep a close support with Baghdad that would manage the fluid nature of landscape unruly Shia in Iraq. Use Shiite militias, while allowing Iran to strengthen the Iraqi army in this critical situation, but undermines the long-term intention of Iran to control Iraq having the upper hand in Baghdad. The longer supported militias and Baghdad become comparatively weaker, more should future Iran labored to restrict the secession of the Southern Shia Iraq.
The upsurge of fighting in the Sunni-controlled areas of Iraq lead to potentially greater Iranian involvement in this dynamic conflict. A call Sunnis to turn their arms against the Persians, historical enemies, and allies of the Persians, the Arabs, Shiites, is an excellent incentive for Sunni Arab fighters, bypassing what any ideological differences with each other.
A resurgence of fanatical related feuds will complicate further the Shiite government of Iraq to recruit several allies among the Sunni population of Iraq to fight against the jihadists.
However, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (IKIL) would not have accomplished the lightning spread across Iraq, although there was substantial support for local Sunni tribal groups, which enjoy significant subsidies in exchange supporters from the Persian Gulf. Our attention must therefore be turned to members of the royal family of Saudi Arabia, who apparently watching developments from the "quiet" Riyadh.
The role of Saudi Arabia
Admittedly, this was not a good year for the Saudis. A Persian American approach would be a nightmare for the Sunni kingdom of Saud, as the prospect of the U.S. to wean energy. Saudi Arabia has no means to directly sabotage the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Indeed, the Saudis had to swallow the "bitter" pill and they start a dialogue with Iran. Nevertheless, the Saudis can and will make life difficult for the Iranians, and if he could be invited to negotiate, will proceed under their own terms.
Syria and Lebanon have consistently serve as hot spots battles destabilizing the region, although the Sunni insurgency has little chance to overthrow the regime in Damascus-based Iran-Lebanon and is so fragmented that no local agent can not be claim a significant advantage. The game has shifted therefore influence in Mesopotamia, Iran does not want to lose the benefits of the rise of Shia in Saudi Arabia-either formally or private-has developed close ties with several tribal groups in the Sunni areas of Anbar Mosul and strengthened the Sunni insurgency.
The Saudis do not have good relations with IKIL. In fact, they've kicked a terrorist organization after parts of the organization in Saudi territory conspiring against kingdom.
But IKIL is not the only organization involved in attacks in the region. Former Baathist fighters from Naqshabandiyya, together with Mujahideen and Sounach also play an important role in the ongoing battles. Most of the Sunni paramilitary groups and the growing number of defectors Awakening Council (composed of Sunni fighters who enlisted in the United States to fight Al Qaeda in Iraq) joined now by these paramilitary groups are coordinated directly by the guerrilla group Anbar, which in turn coordinated with IKIL on a selective basis synergasias.O chief of intelligence of Saudi Arabia, the Yousef bin Ali al Idrisis, believed to be in direct contact with the team Anbar, enabling Riyadh affect the evolution of fighting and thus to bring Iran into serious trouble.
The bonus for Saudi Arabia, although the Sunni insurgency, still largely confined to the Sunni areas in Iraq, and therefore is not expected to affect the production and export of Iraqi oil from the Shiite south, the bonus is the price of crude, have jumped to $ 113 a barrel for the first time this year. Saudi Arabia is not the only party to benefit and wishes this Geli on oil prices. Russia considered itself to be quite satisfied with the effects of the crisis in Iraq.
Reassessment of a mysterious meeting in Sochi
On 3 June, just days before the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (IKIL) attack in Iraq, a secret meeting took place in the holiday resort of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. Putin invited the Saudi prime minister Saud al-Faisal and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who cut short a commitment made in Moscow in order to arrive on time. Details of the content of the meeting is scarce.
The investigative journalism of Geopolitical Weekly to collect information on the content of the meeting proved fruitless, as the only poudimosiopoiithike summary was that Saudi Arabia and Russia have discussed a possible resolution for the division of power in Syria. The state news agency of Saudi Arabia announced on June 10 that Lavrov and al-Faisal had a telephone conversation follows, discussing the settlement of the crisis in Syria. Although Syria is high on the agenda and Russia's interest to protect its influence in Damascus through an agreement that would keep the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power, allafparchoun suspected contained larger background of these commitments.
Both Saudi Arabia and Russia both share mutual goals: to undermine the bargaining line between Iran and the U.S. and to keep oil prices at a satisfactory, for them, a level above $ 100 a barrel.
Few can do to prevent a negotiated settlement between Iran and U.S.. In fact, the events in Iraq and the jihadist threat adds another reason for cooperation between the U.S. and Iran. Washington still faces a large vortex in the Middle East, at the same time anxiously trying to show both internally and with its partners, the interest is mainly focused on other important issues in other parts of the world, and particularly in the immediate vicinity Russia, Ukraine. Moreover, the United States and Turkey have a common view on how to manage the issue of Iraq, a phase where Washington needs cooperation of Ankara towards Russia.
If a crisis of the magnitude of the war in Iraq ignition, give the time needed by Moscow to manage its regional issues with as less U.S. intervention, the better for Putin. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is trying to weaken Iran and to test the US-Iranian cooperation, and in this direction Riyadh believes that it is worth trying to move, at least for now.
History lesson
Whether by coincidence, or on careful strategic planning, or a combination of both, there are many winners and many losers in the game with Iraq. Russia knows this game. The United States, a successor power in colonial spheres of influence map of Sykes-Picot, will be forced to turn to quickly grasp the rules of the game.
When the French and the British were conspiring in 1916 on the post-Ottoman map, Czarist Russia tacitly consented to Paris and London to divide the lands. Exactly one year later, in 1917, the Soviets threw a strategic fulcrum on the agenda of Western publishing agreement Sykes-Picot, thus planting the seeds for the upcoming Arab riots and inciting the imperialist domination of Europe and the Middle Anatoli.Tora the U.S. government recognizes the trap that awaits her. But having knowledge of history, this time, Washington should let local actors to absorb most of the risk.
