Wednesday, July 3, 2013

The Egyptian chaos and the fallacy of U.S.

The military overthrow of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi was a triumph for the mass of protesters flooded Tahrir Square in recent days. Among them were found many of the youngsters, technology specialists activists who had captured the world's imagination more than two years ago when it helped to drop the authoritarian regime of Hosni Mubarak. This is one of the reasons why the Obama administration did not attempt to stop or even to condemn the coup. The dismissal of Morsi may well cede power to forces that are friendly to the U.S. from the Muslim Brotherhood. At the same time marks the end of the ten year project of the U.S. to bring democracy to the Middle East.

In the wake of the terrorist attack of 11 September 2001, the government of George W. Bush had made a radical change in U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. would not continue longer give "carte blanche" in authoritarian Arab regimes that deprive their citizens political freedom. The logic behind the Agenda of Liberty, as it became known, was that democracy eased the disappointment of the restless Arab populations and reduce the attractiveness of Islamic extremism.

This theory was one of the main reasons Bush's invasion of Iraq, a decision that finally brought to power a government allied with Iran. The Bush administration Bush also pressed for elections in the Palestinian Authority - which were won by Hamas, an organization that aspires to destroy Israel.

In 2008, Barack Obama risked his presidential candidacy of his opposition to the war in Iraq. When he took office, Obama sought to distance itself from the excesses of Atzentas of Liberty, saying in a speech in Cairo that while the government's support for the democratic aspirations of the Egyptians, "no system of government can not and should not be imposed by a nation to another. " But as the Arab Spring unfolding in 2011, Obama spoke openly in favor of democratization. The government provided silent support for the revolution in Tunisia, calling public Mubarak to resign and took military action to help the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi of Libya.

The result was, in a word, chaos. From the Middle East where the U.S. supported the regime change of 2003, only Tunisia, one can say, that reminds me stable, functioning state. Even there, the Islamist parties are the biggest election winners-just like the Muslim Brotherhood proved the strongest political organization in Egypt when it finally took place in the elections last year. Not surprising that the U.S. has almost stopped talking about the goal of implanting democracy in the region. The Obama administration is not pushing for elections in Jordan or Saudi Arabia or Bahrain. The Obama agreed to send weapons to the rebels who fight against the dictator of Syria Bashar al-Assad just when it seemed to be on the verge of military defeat. And in Egypt, the U.S. attended aloof tanks to penetrate the center of Cairo and throwing its doors for the first democratically elected government of modern Egypt.

Strategically, this careful inertia may be sensitive. The government has much to gain by being strengthen incompetent leaders like Morsi, who are not interested anyway to cooperate with the U.S.. But it is now impossible for Obama to claim that America supports democracy in the Middle East. The illusion is over. The "realpolitik" had triumphed over idealism. Happy July 4th !

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